America has Fallen

The Cold War is over. Democracy lost.

There can no longer be any doubt. We have a dictator in the White House who answers not to the will of the American people, but to Vladimir Putin. We’re no longer on the side of NATO and European democracies; as of Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine on February 28, we are on the side of Russia, China and North Korea.

We have a totally subservient political party who is now in control of all three branches of government, as well as the highest court in the land. They are doing their best to erode America’s democratic institutions… at record speed.

And Republicans are working hard to dismantle Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, programs that over 100 million Americans depend on. And that’s only a part of it.

If you’re in doubt about any of this, just read Thom Hartmann, who is a shining star as a journalistic model for what America’s media should be doing right now. But with all too few exceptions, they're not.

We are no longer the America we thought we knew. We are becoming something else, and although what America will end up being still remains to be seen, I think it’s doubtful our country will ever return to anything like the America we once knew even just last year. At least, not in our lifetimes.

Yes, there is some pushback from recent court rulings. But with the Supreme Court’s outrageous decision to grant Trump presidential immunity, it’s likely that many of these rulings will ultimately be overturned.

We hope for the best, but frankly, we expect the worst. If you’re reading this, you’re already aware of America’s descent into autocracy, so there’s little point of engaging in yet another round of pointless hand-wringing. There are plenty of other places to go for that. (The cowardly “both sides-ism” that the mainstream media passes off as news coverage would be laughable, if it wasn’t so tragically horrifying.)

Instead, we think it’s more useful to provide a 30,000-foot view of the players, their motivations and, finally, what we can expect going forward. As a point of personal privilege, we think it’s fair to note that since we first started this blog in the days immediately following the election, virtually everything we predicted has come to pass, or is already in progress.

So let’s dive in.

The Players

There are six major players, as follows (in no particular order):

1. Putin – Wants to be the new Stalin. Removal of an effective US from the world stage is a prerequisite. After the infamous Zelenskyy “ambush” on 2/28/25, it’s mission accomplished.

2. Musk – Wants to rule the world.

3. Republicans – Want to be the official ruling class in what amounts to a “White Males Only” plantation economy.

4. MAGA – Wants revenge on anyone who’s ever looked down on them.

5. The Right-Wing (e.g., Heritage Foundation, Federalist Society, dozens more) – They seek destruction of the “regulatory state” and establishment of an authoritarian regime where they pull all the strings. We’ll be saying a lot about them.

6. Trump – Wants to be God. (In other words, he has a pathological need to be worshipped.)

Trump is the weakest link in this chain; he’s the least predictable and the least controllable. Vance’s recent foray into German politics and his “showcase” at the now-infamous Zelenskyy “ambush” are clear signs to us that he’s actively being groomed to take over for Trump, who we think will be forced to walk the plank and go back to working on his golf game. (See our post here.) This is not good news, BTW. Unlike Trump, Vance actually has a brain, which makes him ultimately much more dangerous.

The alignment of these six forces is what made the fall of American democracy possible. Now that their main objective has been achieved, we can expect that each will diverge according to their own particular interests and in their own particular ways.

Irresistible Force vs. Immovable Object

The “Constitutional Crisis” will officially arrive when the White House refuses to comply with the Supreme Court. In a ruling that will probably go down in history as the worst Supreme Court ruling ever made – among quite a few really horrendous ones – Trump v. United States gave the president immunity for any official acts he may take in office.

The ruling makes Trump a dictator. Go ahead – read it. It’s already a done deal.

The one faint glimmer of hope (and it is faint indeed) is that so-called presidential immunity doesn’t officially extend to subordinates. So if, for example, the Supreme Court ordered the Trump administration to resume payments to USAID and the Director of USAID didn’t comply, the Director could presumably face criminal charges.

Yeah. Sure.

Enforcement would fall to Trump’s Department of Justice, under the direction of Attorney General Pam Bondi. Bondi is, of course, a total Trump loyalist, as is every member of Trump’s cabinet. So prosecution ain’t gonna happen. Ever. Period.

Thus ends American democracy. It’s over. Face it.

The next thing to watch is how Trump and the right wing consolidates power. Right now, that’s the only game worth watching. Anything else is mere distraction.

Endgame

The analogy that comes to mind is a burning house. Perhaps the roof and second floor will go first. Or perhaps it’ll be the front porch. Or maybe the garage will go first, followed by the first-floor bedrooms.

In the end, it doesn’t matter. The final result will be the same: a pile of ashes where a democracy used to be.

So let’s take a stab at predicting what the endgame will be when it comes to each of our major players:

Putin

Putin wants to be the new Stalin, elevating Russia once again to the status of world power, even though Russia’s economy is smaller than that of Texas. His objective is to eliminate the US from the world stage in order to give himself a clear field in Europe. By putting a Russian asset in the White House (whether or not Trump is an official Russian asset or not is immaterial at this point), Putin, former head of the KGB, has succeeded in probably the greatest intelligence coup in history.

If you want to see something that will absolutely blow your mind, watch the interview of a KGB defector from 41 years ago. Yuri Alexandrovich Bezmenov lays out the long-term plan to destabilize America and it's absolutely chilling. Thanks to long-term friend and colleague Steve Eldritch for this one.

Through disinformation spread by Russian troll farms (with an assist from Elon Musk), Putin will continue to pit American against American in order to keep Americans’ focus on domestic issues and not on international affairs.

Europe will have to deal with Russia on their own, and US military cooperation with Russia is a distinct possibility. This may take the form of intelligence (likely in coordination with Elon Musk) and might even take the form of US arms sales, either directly or through third parties.

Whether or not Europe will be able to stand up to Moscow is an open question. But if they do, it will be without the help of the US.

Elon Musk

Musk seeks absolute power. His endgame is to rule the Earth… and then Mars. (We kid you not.)

But Musk isn’t driven by the conquest of nations, like Putin is. Nor is he driven by wealth and public acclaim, like Trump is. And he’s not even driven by corporate power, as the right wing is.

Musk is driven by technology and the power it gives him over others. Imagine the ability to wipe out the Social Security benefits of 100 million Americans at the click of a mouse, and you start to get some idea of what Musk is really all about. With enough information – information he may now already have, by the way, courtesy of Trump – Musk has the power to bring entire nations to their knees without leaving his chair. Just wait until he crashes crypto… right after he and his cronies have cashed out.

That’s power. 21st century power. The power of a next-generation overlord. That’s what floats Musk’s boat… or lights his rocket, as the case may be.

If you want to know what Musk’s endgame looks like, read Thom Hartmann’s brilliant post about what the tech bros have in mind. It covers a lot of the topics we’re covering here and you’ll see that we’re very much on the same page as he is.

Republicans

Republican Voters

Republican voters have bought into the idea they’re members of a White, male “ruling class” that deserves special treatment. The thought that others may be entitled to any privileges at all deeply rankles them. Regardless of what they might say about issues, it’s this resentment that motivates them. They see the world as a zero-sum game; they deserve everything they’ve ever gotten, and anything that goes to anybody else is something that should have gone to them instead.

Republican voters’ resentment, greed and sense of superiority has been ruthlessly exploited by the right wing (along with the evangelical movement) in a 50-plus year strategy to divide Americans against each other. The economic objective was to promote the interests of the rich and powerful over those of the working class, and on all counts, the right-wing has been wildly successful. The result has been a country fiercely divided, a level of wealth disparity not seen in a century and the hollowing out of the American middle class.

Brand loyalty is very difficult to dislodge, and between the the right-wing communications ecosphere (Fox News, Sinclair, X, more) and the evangelical community, Republican voters will likely remain, by and large, reliable foot soldiers, no matter how bad things get. In fact, deliberate identification of specific “enemies among us” may help provide them with a freshly-energized “sense of mission” in ways heretofore almost unimaginable in America. (More below.)

Republican Officeholders

Republican officeholders, on the other hand, have a different set of priorities, and in this case, it’s potentially much more sinister. The current balance of the House is 220 to 215, with the GOP holding a narrow five-seat edge. This means that if Democrats remain united (as they have been), it would take a mere three GOP Representatives voting with Democrats to defeat Republican legislation.

The Republican’s budget plan proposes a massive tax cut for the richest Americans, and the only way to pay for it would be by savage cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Let’s look at some polling numbers here:

• 79% of Americans favor higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy individuals.

• Cuts in Medicare and Medicaid are opposed by 85% and 81% of Americans respectively.

• And 79% of Americans say that Social Security “should not be reduced in any way.”

In fact, Social Security used to be called “the third rail of American politics,” meaning that any politician foolish enough to try to touch it wouldn’t be in office much longer.

These numbers are insane. The fact that you could get 80% of Americans to agree on anything these days is remarkable in and of itself. So the idea that you couldn’t get three* House Republicans out of 220 (or four GOP Senators out of 53) to vote to preserve these wildly popular programs simply does not pass the political smell test.

The vast majority of Republican House members are “true believers.” Most, but not all. Something else is going on. One thing’s for sure, though: Republican Congress members are way, way more afraid of Trump than they are of their own voters. And you have to ask why.

Sure, every politician wants to hold onto their seat. That’s human nature. But any Congress member could lose their seat tomorrow and, more than likely, walk into a job at a legal or lobbying firm that would pay them more than what they’re making in Congress.

So what’s happening here?

Do you think that maybe, just maybe, there’s stuff going on behind the scenes that goes beyond the typical political arm-twisting? Sure, back-room deals are part of the political process and have been since time immemorial, but do you think it’s possible that some lines are being crossed?

Former Senator Mitt Romney has already written that some of his Senate colleagues were afraid to vote to impeach Trump out of fears for their own personal safety. Romney mentions that at the time he was shelling out $5,000 a day “to cover private security for his family.”

On more occasions than you can count, Trump has openly suggested violence as a way to silence opposition. And of course, there’s January 6, which we all saw happen in real time as Trump sat in the White House watching it on TV. By all credible accounts, he enjoyed every minute of it.

Do you think it’s possible that a president who’s a convicted felon and pathological liar might consider threatening violence against others when it’s guaranteed he’ll never be found out? And do you think it’s possible that his megalomaniac pal (who’s also the richest man in the world) might – just might – drop a hint or two of what he and the President of the United States could do if they don’t get their way?

Is there any reasonable explanation for the complete acquiescence of every single Republican House member* to vote against programs that have 80% support of their constituents? Frankly, I don’t think there’s any explanation other than the threat of violence.

This is not tiddlywinks. There are real lives at stake here – not just the lives of officeholders, but of their families, their careers, everything. What would a Mafia don do if he was 100% certain he’d never have to face the music? Think about it.

It’s unlikely we’ll ever know the full truth. But by all indications, it looks like for whatever reasons, Republican congress members are scared shitless and the fix is already in. Republicans – officeholders and voters both – are merely pawns in the larger operation and by the time they realize that they once held the power to stop America’s descent into a totalitarian state, that power will almost certainly be gone. Long gone.

*Thomas Massey (KY) voted against the Republican budget because he didn’t think it went far enough.

MAGA

They’re the ones who made it all possible. And now that they’ve gotten Trump elected, they’ll be the first ones he throws under the bus. In fact, with the proposed cuts in social programs, they should already be smelling the fumes.

Even so, MAGA will serve as an unofficial American secret police, if you will. They’ll operate outside the law and without direct supervision. MAGA will be an ever-present threat to anyone they believe is an enemy to Trump and MAGA “lone wolves” will take it upon themselves to do what they think will please the Great Leader, without Trump having to say anything. (See the MAGA attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi.) Cooperation with the the White House and FBI isn’t even out of the question, although the Trump administration will make sure to leave no fingerprints.

Out of all Trump supporters, the MAGA crowd are the most likely to be hit the hardest by cuts in social services, but I think most will go to their graves not admitting to themselves how deeply they fell for the con. It’ll be both entertaining and sad to see how many of them continue to cling to the idea of Trump as their savior and for how long.

OK, let’s be honest: it’ll be way more entertaining than sad. Thanks, assholes.

The Right Wing

Let’s be clear about this. The right wing’s objective has been in clear sight for many years, long before Grover Norquist’s founding of Americans for Tax Reform in 1985 and even longer before his famous quote that he wanted to reduce government to the size where he could “drown it in the bathtub.”

When it comes to government, the right wing’s mission is this:

They want to break it. Smash it. Starve it. Then they’ll buy any remaining pieces of government that might have some profit-making potential (like Social Security, Medicare and the Postal Service) at fire-sale prices, and they’ll throw out the rest.

Their goal is to establish themselves as an exclusive Whites-Only male “ruling class” that controls all wealth and power. The rest of society would be relegated to the status of permanent underclass, an uneducated, compliant and God-fearing workforce without rights nor political power – obedient servants who are content to get their reward in the next life. If this sounds to you like the “good ol’ days” down on the plantation, you can go to the head of the class. (If education for the lower classes hasn’t already been eliminated.)

That means that you can say goodbye to any government departments that aren’t potential money-makers. Departments like Environmental Protection, the Center for Disease Control, the Department of Education, all those and many, many more will end up on the trash heap, the catastrophic effects on Americans’ health and welfare be damned.

But potential cash cows like Social Security and Medicare (which are funded by employment deductions) will be invested in the stock market, real estate ventures, cryptocurrencies, or anyplace else where the investment bankers will be able to make a quick buck. And when those investments go south (as they invariably do), good luck getting your cash back.

If all this sounds to you like a hostile business takeover, you’ve been paying attention. This is what investment bankers have been doing in the private sector for years. In this case, though, it’s not one business devouring others, it’s an authoritarian “ruling class” taking over the entire country.

We are now on the very cusp of making this dark vision a reality. But how did we get here? Well, there was a lot of groundwork that had to happen first.

Who is the Right Wing?

First off, let's disabuse ourselves of the idea that these are "captains of industry." Unlike predecessors like Vanderbilt (railroads), Rockefeller (oil), Carnegie (steel) and Ford (automobiles), who were business magnates who actually produced something (and employed workers in the process), today's billionaires produce nothing. Absolutely nothing.

Instead, they generate untold amounts of wealth for themselves by taking over companies built by others, disemboweling them and selling the pieces at a profit. These are predators and, ultimately, parasites. Nothing more.

Much of Musk’s wealth represents his holdings in Tesla stock. But Musk didn’t create Tesla. He was an early investor. Musk made hundreds of millions from his shares in PayPal. But he didn’t create PayPal. PayPal was founded by Peter Thiel, who is one of the “tech bros” behind the right-wing’s dismantling of our democracy. And a big source of Musk’s wealth today? You. With $38 billion in federal contracts, we American taxpayers are doing our part to make Musk the richest man in the world.

You’re welcome.

Today's right wing is composed of pure corporatists whose prime, if not only expertise is in financial manipulation. They are ideologues and control freaks who see this whole annoying democracy thing as an impediment to squeezing every last dime out of anybody they can. By and large, they are social Darwinists (meaning people who believe in economic "survival of the fittest") who honestly believe they are superior to others... and that it's God's will that put them there.

These are generally not self-made men. (And yes, they are virtually all men.) And they come from money… big money. To paraphrase an oft-used description when it comes to a typical member of the club:

“He was born on third base. But he thinks he hit a triple.”

To most Americans, the right wing is invisible. They work behind closed doors amidst trappings of incredible wealth, but their handiwork is everywhere. These are the ultra-rich, the architects who have spent millions building the framework for their efforts to transform America into an authoritarian state – an exclusive, Whites Only state under their control.

Well-financed right-wing think tanks like The Pioneer Fund, The Cato Institute, The Bradley Foundation, Ayn Rand Institute, Manhattan Institute, Claremont Institute and dozens more have spent over $2 billion over the years to provide the intellectual foundation for the movement. These organizations’ primary job has been to concoct credible logical constructs that hew to their vision of a compliant society under authoritarian leadership.

Once the message is tested and polished, these multi-million dollar organizations also have the resources to recruit and train effective messengers, which they then employ to spread the message unchallenged on the myriad right-wing communications channels they have at their disposal.

The right wing has been at it for almost 90 years (see here). And, to paraphrase the Architect (from “The Matrix”), they have gotten exceedingly good at it. A complete list of all the right-wing think tanks would be as long as your arm, but they all follow the same basic methodology:

Funding academic “research”…

Designed to confirm a predetermined conclusion…

Which is then disseminated to the American public…

On respected media outlets…

By well-paid “experts,” often university chairs funded by the same people who funded the so-called “research” in the first place.

When it comes to social policy, a typical example is the 1994 book, The Bell Curve, published by The Pioneer Fund. In this case, the predetermined conclusion the book seeks to “prove” is this:

Genetically, Blacks are intellectually inferior to Whites.

Accordingly, the book takes the position that as little as possible should be spent on those whose genetic destiny predisposes them to failure. (It always comes down to money going to someone else – anybody else – doesn’t it?)

The Bell Curve’s bogus claim about genetic White Supremacy has been roundly discredited for years (and The Pioneer Fund has been classified by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a hate group), but The Bell Curve is still regularly cited on right-wing media as scientific “proof” of genetic Black inferiority. When it comes to social policy, that’s the sort of thing the right wing regularly does. Their “research” is used to justify political policy recommendations to Congress, where their policy often finds its way into legislation. The proposals invariably involve more money for corporations and rich Americans, and less for everybody else.

Here’s just some of the disinformation the right-wing has spent millions of dollars successfully pumping into the American political bloodstream:

• Tax cuts for the rich – otherwise known as “trickle-down economics” – are good for the economy. (A deliberate lie, confirmed as such by David Stockman, Reagan’s Budget Director.)

• Tax cuts for the rich will balance the budget. (“Pants on Fire” false. Republican tax policy has exploded the national debt.)

• Immigrants are a drain on the economy. (False. In truth, immigrants are a critical part of the economy and mass deportations would cause an economic catastrophe.)

• Immigrants are a major source of crime in the US. (Again, utterly false.)

• There’s rampant voter fraud in the US. (Complete, utter myth.)

This is just a short list of some of the right-wing misinformation that has been foisted upon the American public, each backed up by bogus “research.” Keep in mind that time wasted in countering misinformation like this only resets the argument at best, precluding real discussion on real issues. So the damage is two-fold, at least.

The list above also does not include any of the many outrageous, inflammatory and demonstrably false accusations that make the rounds on social media, disinformation like the hateful allegation that Haitian emigrants in Ohio were eating pets as food. With a national TV audience for a presidential debate, Trump deliberately repeated the vicious accusation, even though he knew it to be utterly untrue.

Promulgation of the institutional lies officially adopted by these right-wing groups is bad enough. But the amplification of these and other blatantly false disinformation on social media is devastating. So although you don’t often really “see” the right-wing, they are, in fact, everywhere.

The Right Wing: Courts and Congress

On the judicial front, The Federalist Society (which, despite its colonial trappings, was founded in only 1982) is funded by right-wing extremist Leonard Leo, who, using millions in anonymous donations, is responsible for every “conservative” justice on the Supreme Court except for Clarence Thomas. (Leo did, however, assist Thomas in his confirmation hearings.) Leo is now in charge of a $1.6 billion trust he wants to use to expand the Federalist Society model.

It’s Leo’s judges who are responsible for the Supreme Court rulings that allowed unlimited corporate funds to corrupt our elections in Citizens United. It’s Leo’s judges who sat on Trump’s immunity claim for so long that there could be no legal action against him in time for the election. And finally, it was Leo’s judges who gave a convicted felon, pathological liar and psychopathic idiot the power of a king in Trump v. United States, thus ending 248 years of American democracy.

But when it comes to politics and policy, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is The Heritage Foundation. Heritage raised over $150 million in 2024, but the influence they have on government cannot be understated. It is they who are the authors of Project 2025, which is nothing less than a blueprint for autocracy. The Trump administration seems to be following it to the letter.

The goal of the right wing is the dismantling of what they call the “regulatory state.” This means the crippling of government’s right to tell businesses what they can or can’t do. Without the power to regulate, government’s only purpose is to enforce security. That is the very definition of a fascist state.

With little or no check on what corporations are allowed to do, get ready for the wholesale dismantling of government programs like Social Security and Medicare. These programs will first be crippled and then taken over by private companies who will happily “save” them… for a piece of the action. That’s what already happened with Medicare with its partial privatization in 2003 under George H. W. Bush. Here’s how that went down:

The Right-Wing Privatization Scam

The rationale for opening Medicare to for-profit companies (called Medicare Advantage) was the idea that allowing private industry to help manage government health care would result in better results for lower cost. The exact opposite turned out to be true: fewer services, more denials, more delays, worse outcomes and higher costs. But the corporations now allowed in the door made billions – monies that would have otherwise gone to you or towards your care.

You can now expect the process to accelerate. This will mean less for you, and more for the corporations that should never have been allowed manage your care in the first place. And you can expect the same thing to happen with Social Security… only worse, because Social Security is bigger and has fewer moving parts.

Social Security is a national jewel – it operates with administrative costs under 1% and has never missed a payment in 85 years. Yet Trump calls it a “failure” and Musk deems it to be a “Ponzi scheme.” The writing is on the wall: they want to get their corporate mitts on the hundreds of billions of your money that’s just sitting there, ripe for the picking.

That’s how it’s going to go with any government funds the right wing can lay their hands on. It will be fewer services and less money for you, while more goes into the pockets of corporate predators. Social Security funds will be invested in the stock market and when the market falls, it’ll be you who takes the hit while the bankers and traders make out like bandits.

Your government will be chopped up like cattle at the slaughterhouse and sold off in pieces to the highest bidder. You’ll end up paying more for less, all so that for-profit companies can take their cut. Government institutions like the Post Office, Amtrak, and anything that once belonged to all of us as citizens will now be sold off to private companies who will be able to charge whatever the market will bear. Keep in mind that with government cutbacks, there will be no meaningful enforcement of anti-monopoly laws, workplace safety, environmental regulations, product safety, minimum wage or any other laws that once limited what corporations could get away with.

The Right Wing and Voting

Republican voter suppression really kicked into high gear in the 2000 presidential election, where Bush “won” Florida by a mere 537 votes, handing him the presidency. Florida Attorney General Katherine Harris (who was also chair of the Bush/Cheney campaign) purged the voter rolls of many thousands of likely Democratic voters, easily more than enough to have won the state for Gore – had they been rightfully allowed to vote.

Even so, a court-ordered recount of Dade County might have made the difference had not Republican “Dirty Trickster” Roger Stone not bused in Republican thugs to violently attack the vote counters. Nattily attired and brandishing cell phones, the demonstrators were clearly not locals, and on account of what was later dubbed the “Brooks Brothers Riot,” the vote count was halted. Winning Florida meant that Bush would win the Electoral College and the presidency, even though he had received over 400,000 fewer votes than Gore.

In 2004, Republicans used variations on the same recipe, this time in Ohio. Ohio Attorney General Ken Blackwell (also Bush/Cheney campaign chair) implemented a virtual fusillade of measures clearly designed to suppress the Democratic vote. And on Election night, the building in Warren County where the votes were being counted was shut down in response to a level 10 threat warning by Homeland Security and the FBI (which was never explained), blocking anyone from observing the process. By the time the dust cleared, Bush had won Ohio by a little over 2%, handing him a second term as president.

In 2024, Greg Palast’s documentary “Vigilantes, Inc.” shows how Republican voter suppression efforts resulted in over 3.5 million likely Democratic voters being denied their right to vote. Had they been able to cast their votes, it would easily have been enough to swing the election to Harris.

And what does the right wing have in store for 2026? Glad you asked.

The SAVE Act would disenfranchise tens of millions of Americans, especially (surprise!) likely Democratic voters. Women in particular would be severely impacted. In a transparently deceptive effort to stop alleged “voter fraud” (which in fact, doesn’t exist to any significant degree), married women who use their husband’s last name on their ID would be denied the vote unless they re-register under their married names.

Ridiculous, you say? It could never pass, you say? Well, a version of the bill has already passed in New Hampshire, and Republicans are working to expand it in time for the 2026 elections.

But Wait… There’s More…

But the right wing isn’t done. Far from it. They’re going full speed ahead to dismantle basic freedoms such as reproductive rights and even freedom of the press. You can expect another Supreme Court case on the abortion drug mifepristone (the plaintiffs lost the first case on standing, not on its merits), so once Republicans are successful in implementing a total abortion ban (as they have vowed to do) abortion will be available only to the well-off who can afford to travel outside the country. All other women will be forced to suffer through a life-threatening pregnancy or bearing an unwanted child, even if that child has unsurvivable birth defects or is the result of rape or parental abuse.

(It should be noted that the right-wing organizations we're speaking about here don't really have much to say about abortion, gay rights or even race. They're all about money and power. But these social hot-button issues provide the political support the right wing requires to implement their agenda. There are plenty of religious and other groups who are willing to pick up the ball, and millions in right-wing funds to help finance them.)

And, finally – for now – the Supreme Court seems to be champing at the bit to muzzle the press by overturning New York Times Co. v Sullivan.* If Sullivan is overturned, anyone who publishes content deemed to be “derogatory” by the subject could end up having to pay millions of dollars in damages for libel, even if the content is true. Win or lose, the legal fees alone would make it possible to put all but the largest publishers out of business. So the safest course of action will be to not publish anything at all that might offend the tender sensibilities of the upper echelons of society.

*Update 3/24/25: In a ruling that may signify a slight shift, the Supreme Court declined to hear a case that could have overturned the Sullivan ruling. However, Thomas and Gorsuch wrote separately that the court should take a fresh look at its precedents that make it harder for public figures to win defamation cases. Stay tuned.

Press self-censorship is already happening:

• Against the will of the editorial staff, the Washington Post refused to make an endorsement in the 2024 presidential race. And after the election, Jeff Bezos ordered the editorial staff to change the direction of their opinion pages. Columnists Ruth Marcus, Jennifer Rubin, Michelle Norris and Opinion Editor David Shipley have resigned.

• Increasingly intrusive editing of the New York Times Nobel Prize-winning economist and columnist Paul Krugman caused him to leave the paper. Columnists Charles Blow and Pamela Paul have also moved on, but without specifically citing editorial pressure.

• ABC News paid Trump $15 million to settle a groundless defamation suit rather than fight the case on its merits.

• Trump is suing The Des Moines Register over publishing an unfavorable poll.

These are just a few things we happen to know about. God only knows what else is going on. So much for freedom of the press. And if you think this is bad, well, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Meanwhile, to paraphrase a quote from the great George Carlin, legal firms and universities are folding faster than Superman on laundry day.

There’s still more the in the right wing’s master plan. Things that would have seemed unimaginable only a few months ago will come to pass. And Trump, Putin and Musk will be doing everything they can to make it happen. You’ll see.

Trump

Here we go. This will be short.

Q: What’s Trump going to do?

A: Whatever the fuck he wants.

Q: And what can we do about it?

A: Not much.

There’s not a whole lot more to say, really. We can speculate, but that’s a fool’s game; even long-time Trump watchers have been surprised at the depths of his depravity, the irrationality and intensity of his vengeance. He’s a sadist and a psychopath, and anyone who’s not also a sadist and psychopath would have a hard time keeping up with him or predicting his next move.

Trump is deeply insecure, unstable and self-delusional. Mere victory isn’t enough for him. Trump needs to humiliate his opponents; he’s not happy unless he can rub their nose in it. And even then he’s not satisfied. He’s a sadist, pure and simple – but that’s just part of the picture.

It took less than his first day in office for Trump’s capacity for self-delusion to be made clear to the entire world: on Inauguration Day in 2016, he declared that the largest Inauguration Day crowd in history had assembled on the national mall to honor him. This was a claim that was ridiculously easy to disprove. When photos clearly showed that Trump’s crowd was easily outstripped by that of Obama in 2009, Trump blew his stack, accusing the media of dishonesty.

This is not normal behavior. And true to form, this was just the first of the 30,573 lies Trump told in his first term in a tally by the Washington Post.

We could go on about Trump’s egregious behavior, but we’re not here to argue whether or not he’s qualified to be president. His lack of fitness should be readily apparent to anyone with half a brain who hasn’t drunk the right-wing Kool-Aid.

Rather, we bring up the subject of who this man is to emphasize the fact that his is a sick mind – and his mental stability is likely only to get worse. He’s also a fucking idiot, surrounded by people who will do exactly what he wants without question, and will tell him exactly what he wants to hear at all hours of the day and night.

Trump is a monster – a malevolent creature with no self-control, no limits, and no “off” switch. This is a deeply insecure and ignorant man whose need for money, praise, or ass-kissing can never be satisfied. Ever.

And it’s this deeply flawed and dangerous man who has access to America’s nuclear launch codes. That means that Trump holds the power to destroy the world in his hands. His tiny, tiny hands.

If you’re not scared shitless, you ought to be.

But Trump’s power is not what it seems. It’s an illusion. He’s actually being used as a tool by the ones who will really end up running the show. For all of Trump’s preening and bluster, he’s really just a convenient patsy, doing the dirty work for unseen actors who are really pulling the strings.

The most pathetic part of it all? The pompous blowhard doesn’t have a fucking clue.

The Constitutional Crisis

As of this writing, Trump has yet to directly violate a Supreme Court ruling. We think that’s only matter of time. If/When (we think “when”) the court rules against him, there’s no way for them to enforce the ruling, so at that point, we will officially be in full-blown Constitutional crisis. This could happen literally at any moment.

Once emboldened, the gloves are off; Trump will have been given a clear field to do whatever he wants and he’ll have the military, the FBI, local law enforcement and his MAGA army to back him up.

One really important thing to note here: Trump talks tough, but he’s actually a coward. Despite the “tough guy” image producers crafted for him on The Apprentice, Trump rarely fires staff members face-to-face. Instead, he’ll use Twitter, email or even television appearances to notify people they’ve been fired. Of course, when it comes to subordinates not under his direct command, Trump will task department heads to do his dirty work for him. (After all, that’s what they’re there for.)

There’s an important corollary to this: Despite claims his subordinates have made that he has the right to ignore the courts, Trump himself has for the moment stopped short of saying he’ll defy a Supreme Court ruling.

But Trump is a master when it comes to slithering out of consequences for any of his criminal actions. With all the survival instincts of a cockroach, Trump almost certainly has a strategy in mind to ultimately get around any Supreme Court ruling that may go against him. There’s one option in particular that we think especially likely:

Declaring war.

Invoking wartime powers would give Trump the self-justification he’d need to cross the metaphorical Rubicon, as Julius Caesar did in real life. Being a “wartime president” would also give Trump the talking points he and the right-wing media need for him to get away with seizing absolute power.

Trump has already asked the military to come up with plans to take over the Panama Canal. That’s likely to be the first target.

Trump has already declared a national emergency at the southern border (despite the fact that illegal border crossings have plummeted spectacularly) so he’s already laid the groundwork for invoking the Insurrection Act (an 1807 law that gives the president the power to use the military against the general populace). And Trump is also now “disappearing” legal immigrants to notorious Salvadorean prisons using the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, an act last used in the US to justify the Japanese interment camps of WWII. The interment camps were a shameful episode in American history, an act for which the government later apologized and awarded reparations to the unfairly imprisoned.

So the pieces are already in place for Trump to use the military to do anything he wants, up to and including arresting anyone he wants without trial. And, once arrested, he’s laying the groundwork to “disappear” them, sending prisoners anywhere he wants, even foreign concentration camps beyond the jurisdiction of US law. The only thing that might possibly stand in his way could be a Supreme Court ruling against these unapologetically Nazi-style actions. But as a “wartime president,” Trump would almost certainly claim he has the right – and patriotic duty – to ignore anything the Supreme Court might say. And the right-wing media will back him up to the hilt.

That is the precipice upon which we stand.

The Press

Where it all ends is anyone’s guess, and your guess is as good as ours. We think it’s a good bet, though, that at the top of Trump’s to-do list is doing his best to control the flow of information that reaches the American public. Considering his obsession with the media, we think that’s a no-brainer.

This means groundless DOJ investigations, lawsuits, detaining journalists, raiding news outlets and more. If Trump has any questions on how to do this, he can take a page out of Viktor Orban’s or Vladimir Putin’s book, to see how they’re doing it in Hungary and in Russia, ranked 85th and 162 (out of 180) on the Reporters Without Borders Freedom Index. Major press outlets are already bending the knee. (See above.)

And, in an effort to mask the negative impact his policies are having on the US economy, Trump will manipulate heretofore trustworthy government economic statistics in order to mislead the country and, especially, Wall Street. This is already in progress. In fact, the White House is now floating a budget trick that will allow them to “hide” $4 trillion on tax cuts. Read about it here. That should make it much easier to pass Musk’s budget plan, dontcha think?

The Law

The one sign of hope is that Trump has been losing consistently in the courts. A phalanx of lawyers from major law firms (many of them presumably working pro bono) and attorneys from non-profit organizations like the ACLU have been fighting Trump tooth-and-nail in the courts… and winning.

But a recent Trump executive order is seeking to change all that. Read about it here. For starters, any law firm on Trump’s “enemies list” can forget about doing any government work. And targeted firms may have no choice but to reject clients out of their inability to represent them effectively. Trump’s barring them from government property may make it simply impossible for them to provide competent counsel.

So, at the risk of losing millions of dollars – or even going out of business – lawyers and their law firms will have to think very carefully indeed when it comes to representing clients who might run afoul of Trump. But in any case, even if Trump’s executive order is disallowed, the message has been sent: if you dare to represent anyone on Trump’s enemies list, the consequences will be immediate and severe. That’s a done deal, regardless of what the courts might say.

This will be the case for at least the next four years. It will take all the resources that Democrats can muster to wrest back control of the White House in 2028 and start to repair the immense damage done by Trump.

But as steep a hill as that is to climb, the job just got a whole lot harder. In coordination with Musk and other right-wing groups, the Trump administration just did the equivalent of declaring war against the Democratic Party, taking “a series of highly partisan official actions that threaten to hobble Democrats’ ability to compete in elections for years to come.” (NY Times, 3/19-20/25)

So much for the rule of law.

Whew! So now that we’re gotten all that out of the way, let’s suggest some possible scenarios about what Trump might do and how it all might play out.

Possible Scenarios

We’ll list these from best-case scenario to worst, so if you get too freaked out as you go down the list, you can just move on to doing something else. I’m told that gardening is very relaxing.

Scenario #1: Unicorns and Rainbows

Trump backs down from a confrontation with the Supreme Court and, fearful of retribution in 2026, the Republican-controlled House and Senate reverses course on gutting Social Security and Medicare. In the face of public outcry, Musk is given the boot. The country is so disgusted by what Trump tried to do that Republicans up and down the ballot are routed in 2026. Democrats take the House in 2026, with high hopes of taking the Senate and White House in 2028, as Americans firmly reject the Republican Party.

Summary: This scenario is straight out of the Democratic playbook… from 1954. Yet, when it comes to the faithful, Democratic leadership seems to imply that this scenario is possible. Highly doubtful, to be kind. Next, please.
Probability: Near zero

Scenario #2: Trump Walks Up to the Line…

But he doesn’t cross it. He does the bare minimum to comply with unfavorable Supreme Court rulings, taking his Presidential immunity ruling in Trump v. United States as as a win that allows him to take actions that would otherwise be criminal. Trump seemingly being “reasonable” gives Republicans some cover, but not enough for Republicans to pass their huge tax cut and kill Social Security and Medicare. The rule of law survives, the worst of Trump’s policies don’t pass, the government remains funded, and these bedrock social programs survive. For now.
Probability: 2 (out of 10)

Scenario #3: Trump Toes the Line…

But he still doesn’t cross it. In this case, though, Trump seemingly being “reasonable” does give Republicans enough cover to pass their huge tax cut and kill Social Security and Medicare, as per the original plan.
Probability: 2.5

Summary for Scenarios 2 & 3: The Constitution survives, but barely. Everything else good about America is gone, or under threat.

Scenarios #4 and Beyond…

The Story:

Mommy says, “Don’t go into the workshop.” So you don’t. For a while. But there’s something you really really want… and you think it might be in the workshop. So you take a deep breath, screw up your courage, take a look around, step into the workshop, and…

Nothing happens.

In fact, you kinda like it there. It’s nice. Nobody tells you what to do. And there are plenty of fun toys to play with. So now that you know there’s no downside to going into the workshop, you’re going go there all the time. Yay!

The Moral:

Once Donald Trump defies the Supreme Court – and nothing happens – that’ll be the beginning of the end…. perhaps even the end of all of us. Once Trump crosses the line, there’s no going back – and no stopping him.

Some Perspective

As Trump has done with every unfavorable court ruling he’s ever received, his strategy has been to appeal… and delay. The Supreme Court has been particularly cooperative here, taking up lower court rulings they could easily have let stand and sitting on them for inordinate amounts of time. The same thing may well happen with the numerous cases against Trump that are currently wending their way through the courts. So despite court rulings against the Musk illegal firings, withholding of federal funds, elimination of the Education Department and more, relief from the Supreme Court may not be coming for quite some time, if at all. (If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump, it’s all over.)

In the meantime, Trump is acting like a battering ram, destroying everything in sight, with seemingly no rhyme or reason. As random as it might seem, this is deliberate. Just like the burning house, it doesn’t matter what part of the house goes first; the end result will be the same. The GOP Congress is happy to make Trump the scapegoat, Trump is happy to let Musk take the heat and when democracy and the US government have breathed their last, the right wing vultures will be happy to pick the carcass clean. It’s all part of the plan.

One way or the other, we don’t think Trump will stop short of seizing absolute power, whether it be by Supreme Court ruling, declaring martial law or simply by defiance. Even in the almost-unimaginable event that the Supreme Court reverses its catastrophic ruling in Trump v. United States, Trump would still need to be prosecuted (and a judgement enforced) by the Department of Justice, and Trump-appointed AG Pam Biondi would never let that happen. So she would have to be impeached and replaced for Trump to be held to account for breaking the law. Good luck with that.

Speaking of which, impeachment and conviction is likely the only way an uncooperative Trump can be stopped, short of unforeseen circumstances. And that would make J.D. Vance president who, insofar as he has a brain, would arguably be even worse. Vance would be wielding dictatorial powers over a crippled government with the strongest military in the world. And he’d be able to run for re-election in 2028, if US elections even matter at that point.

That would be game, set and match.

In any event, we hope we’re wrong, but we think that however he does it, Trump will end up seizing absolute power. When he does, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to control himself, no one will stop him and the results will be unspeakable.

The below scenarios assume that Trump has assumed the powers of a dictator, recognizing no limits on his power. We think all the pieces are in place and that it’s only a matter of time.

Scenario #4: Trump as “Benevolent” Dictator

Trump assumes absolute power, but is merciful. (Don’t laugh.) Social Security and Medicare survive for now – barely – but new doors are opened for privatization, allowing funds to be managed by investment bankers. (Sadly, there’s little hope for Medicaid.) Trump ratchets down international tensions, but he does withdraw from NATO (officially or otherwise) and he throws Ukraine to the wolves.

Concerned about the economy, Trump moderates his tariff policy on a case-by-case basis to soften its potential negative impact on the economy. Pressure on the media and legal profession continue unabated, and though anti-Trump demonstrations continue, they don’t achieve the intensity (or the level of media coverage) for Trump to feel it necessary to mobilize force against them.

Summary: Trump’s survival instincts may make him stop short of pushing the envelope too far. But don’t count on it. His thirst for vengeance is unslakable and his capacity for self-control almost non-existent, so the idea that he might moderate his worst impulses is questionable at best. But we can still hope.
Probability: 4

Scenario #5: Right-Wing Fever Dream

Trump gets everything he wants. And things end up being not so bad after all. The media is cowed enough to that they simply don’t cover events that take place out of the spotlight or are uncomplimentary to the administration (e.g., illegal searches, unauthorized detentions, marches, demonstrations, etc.). Although government statistics are highly suspect, the economy seems to sputter along and there’s little reporting on the massive job losses caused by Trump’s dismantling of government.

Summary: This is the right wing’s fever dream. But Republican rose-colored glasses won’t mask the fact that even if Social Security remains largely intact (for now), the loss of Medicaid combined with massive Medicare cuts will have a major negative impact on millions. The assumption here is that right-wing media domination and control will be enough to keep the lid on; it won’t.
Probability: 2

Scenario #6: Trump Wins, But Exercises Restraint

Trump gets everything he wants. But instead of living happily ever after, the economy tanks, millions are out of work and people take to the streets. Trump, confident in his ability to stay in power, exercises restraint though, and publicly lets demonstrations run their course, while continuing to detain or otherwise harass opposition leaders and media outlets behind the scenes.

Summary: The right wing gets its wish and a compliant society remains safely under control. This would be an outcome the right wing would be happy with and, as such, the most likely outcome… if Trump was a balanced individual. He’s not.
Probability: 4

Scenario #7: Trump is Trump

Trump has cut the FBI’s domestic terrorism unit. He’s also disbanded the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB). These and other Trump policies are practically an open invitation for a domestic terrorist attack, which Trump will use as his “Reichstag Moment,” the Berlin fire that Hitler used to justify installing himself as dictator.

If no terrorist attack is forthcoming, Trump may even order a “false flag” operation to force the issue. Or, as a last resort, Trump may instead declare war against Panama and, as a “wartime president,” declare martial law.

One way or the other, Trump finds a way to take his place alongside his role models Putin, Xi, Orban and Kim Jong Un.

People take to the streets. But demonstrations will be infiltrated by violent agents provocateurs, whose actions will be prominently featured in media reports. There will be mass arrests; opposition leaders will be arrested and detained indefinitely, many being sent without trial to secret prisons. Musk, who now has the personal information of every single American, has the ability not only to track the movements of anyone he likes, he also has the ability to wreak financial havoc on them, even so far as emptying their bank accounts.

The media is shut down, save for government-approved broadcasts. Trump has already abandoned Ukraine and may even be helping Putin, openly or otherwise. China, sensing its moment, makes a bid to seize Taiwan. Musk, already having been briefed by the Pentagon on potential war plans against China,* is able to pass the information on to them in order to protect the sizable investment he has in the country. Trump does nothing.

Summary: Russia and China are given a clear field to do whatever they like, while Europe, Japan and Australia remain the lone bulwarks against autocracy. The US becomes a one-party authoritarian Whites Only state, beset by crime and racial strife, and with a weak, disorganized and ineffective minority party unlikely to regain power for the foreseeable future.
Probability: 8

*It’s since come to light that Trump may have been initially unaware of Musk’s Pentagon briefing and that when Trump learned of it, had it scaled back to omit classified information. This means that Musk may have arranged the Pentagon briefing directly, bypassing Trump. If so, this is a major security failure. But regardless of how the meeting was set up, it’s clear that Musk is intensely interested in US war plans against China, and that alone should ring some major alarm bells.

Scenario #8: Trump Unleashed

The same as Scenario #7, but Trump fully unleashes his inner demons. (And boy, he’s got a lot of them.) We’re talking the arrest of perceived enemies like Biden, Hillary Clinton and Liz Cheney, concentration camps (already being built), firing squads and even gas chambers.

Summary: Trump may be stopped before he goes full fascist. Despite his purging of the military leadership, there may be commanders who stand up to Trump, or even forcibly remove him from power if Trump threatens to play the nuclear card. There are several other possible “escape valves,” none particularly likely, but extraordinary circumstances often require extraordinary measures. Still, the likelihood of Trump going “Whole Hitler” cannot be dismissed out of hand.
Probability: 7

Scenario #9: Civil War

Trump has wasted no time in purging the military leadership, removing long-serving, well-qualified officers and replacing them with those whose main qualification is loyalty. Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, Trump’s new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is typical; Caine has reportedly said about Trump, “I love you, sir. I think you’re great, sir. I’ll kill for you, sir.”

Members of the armed forces, though, have been trained that they they have a duty not to obey orders that are unethical, orders like killing children and/or unarmed civilians. So if Trump orders the military to perform acts that are clearly against international law, it may cause divisions in the military that could well result in large scale violence, even Civil War.

Russia has been waging a “shadow war” against the US for some time and a new American Civil War is high on their wish list. Tensions are already high and they will almost certainly grow higher as situations escalate and economic pressures rise; it’s hard to imagine Trump doing anything to turn down the temperature. Quite the opposite in fact; Trump is much more likely to act as an accelerant, and Putin will happily throw even more fuel upon the fire.

Summary: With the proliferation of firearms in such a sharply divided nation, along with an unstable leader who’s itching for a fight, the chances for national long-term domestic tranquility are slim. If/when things go sideways, the end result is anybody’s guess, but chances are that it won’t be pretty. Not by a long shot.
Probability: 6.

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Wild Cards

There are a variety of things that could happen to throw Trump’s plans off the rails. In no particular order:

• Involuntary Incapacitation: If Trump is unable to serve for whatever reason, J.D. Vance will assume the presidency. Vance’s VP will need to be confirmed by a majority vote in both houses of Congress, so unless the Democrats win both houses of Congress in 2026 (not a chance), the White House will remain solidly in Republican hands until 2029, at least. It’s interesting to speculate on who Vance might pick if the choice is up to him; my money is on House Speaker Mike Johnson, who’s amply demonstrated his bootlicking skills. Yum.

• Trump Steps Down: This is quite possible on account of a variety of factors, including Trump’s age and health. Before stepping down, Trump would almost certainly want to have a say in who the next VP would be, and chances are he’d force Vance to choose Donald’s son, Donald Trump Jr. as a condition for leaving office. We think that Trump will have largely outlived his usefulness within two years and, at that point, have become more of a political liability than an asset. So pressure will be brought upon Trump to step down and hand the presidency to Vance, thus giving Vance a head start on 2028 while at the same time establishing a potential Trump White House dynasty. We think this is the most likely outcome, more likely than Trump serving out a full second term (and trying to maneuver for a blatantly unconstitutional third, which he’s already doing).

• Impeachment: It would take 19 GOP Senators to impeach and convict Trump; if Trump behaves badly enough (like sending people to gas chambers or using nuclear weapons) it’s a possibility, even though it’s highly unlikely no matter what Trump does. (Note that many GOP senators may be complicit in what Trump has done, so should Trump be removed from office, Senate collaborators will have no protection.)

• Military Coup: If the only thing that stands between Trump and nuclear annihilation is the military, the generals might step in to save the nation, possibly even the world.

• The 25th Amendment: The 25th Amendment is designed for situations where the president is incapacitated to serve. It takes a majority in both houses for the Vice President to assume the presidency, but as soon as the incapacitated president certifies that he can resume his duties, he is returned to the office. So as long as Trump retains any ability whatsoever to communicate, he’ll continue as president until the end of his term, if he so desires.

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So Now What?

Is all lost? No… not yet. There are things we can do. But it’s not going to be easy. Saving the America we know and love is going to take a lot of time, effort and fortitude – unrealistic expectations can doom our efforts before they’ve even really started.

So the purpose for this post has been to take a cold, hard look at what we’re up against. Expectations matter. An old politico once used the term “Kamikaze Left” in describing how Democrats would expend massive amounts of time, energy and good will, only to run into brick walls over and over again.

We can no longer afford that luxury. This one is for all the marbles, and we need to get it right.

“Forewarned is forearmed,” as they say. So you may now consider yourself fully warned, if not yet fully armed. We’ll deal with that in a later post.

Thank you for taking the time. And for now, as I like to say…

Onwards!

– Billy James Cobin